Search results for "Risk model"
showing 9 items of 9 documents
From South to North? Mobility of Southern Italian Students at the Transition from the First to the Second Level University Degree
2018
In the last decades, the Italian University System has encountered several structural reforms aimed at making it more internationally competitive. Among them, the introduction of the University financial autonomy has triggered an “internal” competition among Universities to attract students from the entire country. Students’ enrollment at the first level has decreased significantly especially after the economic crisis of 2008, while the students’ migration from the South to the Central and Northern regions of the country has increased. These phenomena have created further inequalities within the country and a cultural and socio-economic loss for the South that does not appear to slow down. …
Phenomena in the Cyber World
2015
This chapter describes and evaluates the cyber world, including its phenomena, from a strategic perspective. As no universally accepted definitions for the cyber world exist, associated literature and publications address it in many different ways. A five-layer model is constructed for cyber threats, which include cybervandalism, cybercrime, cyber intelligence, cyberterrorism and cyberwarfare. This chapter depicts the standards-based risk model, cyber operations and cyberweaponry, as well as the critical structures of society as the targets. Moreover, cyber security definitions are provided. Cyber world phenomena are addressed in more detail in other chapters of this book.
Development of a Model to Estimate the Risk of Emission of Greenhouse Gases from Forest Fires
2022
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Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data
2015
The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian infe…
Delay in claim settlement and ruin probability approximations
1995
We introduce a general risk model for portfolios with delayed claims which is a natural extension of the classical Poisson model. We investigate ruin problems for different premium principles and provide approximations for the ruin probability. We conclude with some specific models, for example, for IBNR portfolios and portfolios where the pay-off process depends on the claim size.
Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015–2016
2019
We jointly estimated relative risk for dengue and Zika virus disease (Zika) in Colombia, establishing the spatial association between them at the department and city levels for October 2015–December 2016. Cases of dengue and Zika were allocated to the 87 municipalities of 1 department and the 293 census sections of 1 city in Colombia. We fitted 8 hierarchical Bayesian Poisson joint models of relative risk for dengue and Zika, including area- and disease-specific random effects accounting for several spatial patterns of disease risk (clustered or uncorrelated heterogeneity) within and between both diseases. Most of the dengue and Zika high-risk municipalities varied in their risk distributio…
Validation and update of the thoracic surgery scoring system (Thoracoscore) risk model.
2020
Abstract OBJECTIVES The performance of prediction models tends to deteriorate over time. The purpose of this study was to update the Thoracoscore risk prediction model with recent data from the Epithor nationwide thoracic surgery database. METHODS From January 2016 to December 2017, a total of 56 279 patients were operated on for mediastinal, pleural, chest wall or lung disease. We used 3 recommended methods to update the Thoracoscore prediction model and then proceeded to develop a new risk model. Thirty-day hospital mortality included patients who died within the first 30 days of the operation and those who died later during the same hospital stay. RESULTS We compared the baseline patient…
Head-to-head comparison of contemporary heart failure risk scores.
2021
Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB Aims: Several heart failure (HF) web-based risk scores are currently used in clinical practice. Currently, we lack head-to-head comparison of the accuracy of risk scores. This study aimed to assess correlation and mortality prediction performance of Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) risk score, which includes clinical variables + medications; Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), which includes clinical variables + treatments + analytes; PARADIGM Risk of Events and Death in the Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure (PREDICT-HF) and Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) risk calculator, which also include biomarke…
Features Associated with Recurrence Beyond 5 Years After Nephrectomy and Nephron-Sparing Surgery for Renal Cell Carcinoma: Development and Internal V…
2014
Background: Approximately 10-20% of recurrences in patients treated with nephrectomy for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) develop beyond 5 yr after surgery (late recurrence). Objective: To determine features associated with late recurrence. Design, setting, and participants: A total of 5009 patients from a multicenter database comprising 13 107 RCC patients treated surgically had a minimum recurrence-free survival of 60 mo (median follow-up [FU]: 105 mo [range: 78-135]); at last FU, 4699 were disease free (median FU: 103 mo [range: 78-134]), and 310 patients (6.2%) experienced disease recurrence (median FU: 120 mo [range: 93-149]). Interventions: Patients underwent radical nephrectomy or nephron-…